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Fri September 20 2024

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German construction growth grinds to a halt

6 Aug 18 Growth in Germany’s housing and commercial construction sectors was offset by a renewed downturn in civil engineering in July.

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Overall, growth聽 of聽 construction聽 activity聽 ground聽 to聽 a聽 halt聽 in聽 July,聽 with聽 the聽 renewed聽 downturn聽 in聽 civil聽 engineering work coinciding with slower expansions聽 in聽 both聽 commercial聽 and聽 housing聽 activity.

New聽 orders聽 rose聽 on聽 the聽 month,聽 albeit聽 only聽 marginally.

Capacity continued to act聽 as a constraining factor:聽 the latest rise in employment in the sector was the聽 slowest聽 seen聽 for聽 1.5聽 years,聽 while聽 subcontractor聽 availability聽 showed聽 a聽 further聽 steep聽 decline.聽 Elsewhere,聽 a聽 combination聽 of聽 new聽 road聽 tolls聽 and聽 higher聽 demand聽 for聽 building聽 materials聽 resulted聽 in聽 a聽 further sharp increase in purchase prices faced by聽 construction companies.

The聽 headline聽 seasonally聽 adjusted聽 Germany聽 今日看料聽 Purchasing聽 Managers鈥櫬 Index 聽(PMI)聽 registered in line with the 50.0 鈥榥o-change鈥 mark in聽 July, down from 53.0 in June. The latest figure was聽 the聽 lowest聽 seen聽 for聽 four聽 months聽 and聽 below聽 the聽 average聽 recorded聽 over聽 the聽 first聽 half聽 of聽 the聽 year聽 (52.9).

The worst-performing area of the industry, however,聽 remained聽 civil聽 engineering,聽 which聽 returned聽 to聽 contraction after a brief pick-up in June.聽

Though聽 reports聽 from聽 panellists聽 signalled聽 demand聽 for 聽new聽 projects聽 from聽 clients,聽 capacity聽 constraints聽 in聽 the聽 sector聽 remained聽 evident聽 and聽 the聽 level聽 of聽 new聽 orders聽 received was up only marginally from the previous聽 month.聽

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Constructors continued to take on new staff during聽 July, but the rate of job creation was well below the聽 highs聽 seen聽 around聽 the聽 turn聽 of聽 the聽 year聽 and聽 the聽 lowest聽 overall聽 since聽 January聽 2017.聽

尝补迟别蝉迟听 survey聽 data also showed a sharp drop in the availability of聽 sub-contractors.聽 Capacity pressures in the sector were also reflected in a further marked lengthening of supplier delivery聽 times, which increased聽 on average to the greatest聽 extent since November last year.

Higher聽 demand聽 for聽 building聽 materials聽 meanwhile聽 continued聽 to聽 help聽 drive聽 up聽 the聽 average聽 price聽 of聽 purchases聽 faced聽 by聽 constructors.聽

Phil Smith,聽 principal聽 economist at IHS Markit said:聽 鈥淓ncouragingly,聽 order聽 books聽 did聽 return聽 to聽 growth聽 in聽 July聽 and聽 anecdotal聽 evidence聽 suggests聽 that聽 demand聽 isn鈥檛聽 necessarily聽 the聽 issue,聽 but rather constraints in terms of capacity.聽

鈥淐onstructors continue to look to boost employment numbers;聽 however,聽 an聽 ever-tightening聽 labour聽 marked聽 has聽 seen聽 the聽 pace聽 of聽 hiring聽 drop聽 off聽 in聽 recent聽 months聽 and聽 the聽 availability聽 of聽 subcontractors聽 also聽 continues聽 to聽 worsen.聽 Supply聽 chains are meanwhile struggling under the pressure聽 from聽 higher聽 demand聽 for聽 building聽 materials聽 and聽 components,聽 with聽 constructors聽 noting聽 the聽 worst聽 delivery delays for eight months in July.鈥

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